Abrupt Change in Leadership: Political Overview

The vacancy of the president’s office or the formation of a new legislative council would not have a significant impact on the status quo. This is because the Zionist settler-colonial project is larger than the spaces where these two institutions are relevant, namely, the West Bank and Gaza.

The escalation of popular confrontation with the Israeli regime and the outbreak of a new Palestinian intifada would increase the likelihood of the revival and reform of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), as the public would pressure the political factions to accomplish this task.

Efforts to restore the PLO would receive popular support, provided that Fatah does not insist on following the same political approach of demanding statehood within the 1967 borders, a territory that is continually shrinking due to Israeli annexation, expansion, and de-Palestinization.

The PLO could play an active role in combating the distortive and fragmentary rhetoric surrounding Palestinian history, geography, national identity, heritage, and struggle for liberation, and promote unifying counternarratives.

Those with the greatest chance of taking control of the PA and its institutions have risen through, and been vetted by, the internationally sponsored security infrastructure. Moreover, it has become clear that no one may assume leadership of Palestinian structures of power without gaining the approval of the leaders of the security sector and its interlocutors.

The concept of a localized resistance economy can unite communities around collective resistance. However, bridging the gap between different actors in different communities and across different social classes necessitates a larger framework.

The vacancy of the president’s office or holding of legislative elections are not likely to lead to fundamental changes in the education sector, so long as the status quo persists. This is because the persistence of the status quo is contingent on the interests of PA forces, international actors, and the Israeli regime.

The collapse of the PA assumes that all internal factors driving popular action against its policies would continue. It further assumes that the popular movement would call for the PA’s dismantlement due to its cumulative failures to address the many issues affecting the daily lives of Palestinians.

The status quo is nothing but a transitional stage hindering the necessary transformations to the PA, the PLO, and Palestinians at large. However, the longer this scenario persists, the more probable its enabling factors become catalysts for the other scenarios.

A new and democratic legislative council would require freeing the Palestinian economy from that of Israel’s. It would require adopting a participatory and transparent approach in the preparation of the annual general budget, and it would necessitate distribution of financial resources in accordance with the needs and aspirations of the Palestinian people. Further analysis on this intersection is not available at this time.