Collapse of the PA: Economy
The collapse of the PA would deepen the economic divide between the West Bank and Gaza, and would instantly put 140,000 public-sector employees out of work. The implications of this collapse cannot be overstated.
Continuation of the Status Quo: Economy
In light of the continuing decline of the productive sectors and dominance of the trade sector by corrupt Palestinian elite, middle-class workers are getting poorer, supplying their labor to the Israeli market or the trade sector. These workers are increasingly subjugated to the Israeli system of control, and will continue to be so long as the status quo persists.
A New Intifada: Governance & Security
A comparison between the two major popular confrontations between Palestinians and Israeli military forces over the last two decades indicates that the Palestinian Authority’s security forces will likely continue to suppress Palestinian resistance to Israeli hegemony in the event of a new uprising.
Revival of the PLO: Governance & Security
If the PLO were revived, a change of leadership would remain unlikely. Consequently, the PA security forces would remain partisan, as the present leadership has been built on an intricate network buttressed by the security sector.
Collapse of the PA: Governance & Security
If the PA were to collapse, the international community would likely see to it that the PA security forces are remodeled as some form of internal policing unit, as stipulated in previous negotiations. The Israeli regime may reinstate control altogether, though this seems unlikely.
Continuation of the Status Quo: Governance & Security
Stability for the international community is equated with Israel’s stability, and it will invariably prioritize Israel’s security and stability over more effective and democratic forms of governance in the West Bank and Gaza.
A New Intifada: Society
Any new uprising must reflect the range of Palestinian experiences and needs in the formulation of resistance strategies, so long as they uphold the values of freedom, equality, social justice, and human rights. It would also need to be open to interacting with the national, regional, and international spheres.
Further analysis on this intersection is not available at this time.
Collapse of the PA: Society
Should the PA collapse before the PLO has been revived and before the PA’s functions and institutions have been reconfigured, it would be wise to focus first on addressing the disintegration of society on geographical, tribal, or familial bases.
Continuation of the Status Quo: Society
Should the status quo persist for the foreseeable future, the existing structures of inequality, especially in terms of gender and class disparities, will likely continue and deepen. In addition, the middle class will likely remain apprehensive about the PA’s collapse or dismantlement.
