Tahani Mustafa is the Palestine analyst at the International Crisis Group, where she works on issues including security, and socio-political and legal governance in the West bank. She holds a PhD in politics and international studies from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London. She is based between the UK, Jordan, and Palestine.
From this author
As the Israeli regime continues its genocidal campaign against Palestinians in Gaza, many have begun to weigh in on the future of Hamas and of Palestinian leadership more broadly once the bombardment ends. One of the dominant proposals is the revival of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), with Hamas as a member party.
But revival of the PLO requires more than bringing Hamas into the fold, as the Fatah-controlled PA has effectively whittled down the PLO to a barren institution. What then, beyond inclusion, is needed in order to resuscitate the viability of the PLO? In an effort to strengthen the generative thinking around these questions, Al-Shabaka revisits a collection of its past works that sought to confront this very topic.
Those with the greatest chance of taking control of the PA and its institutions have risen through, and been vetted by, the internationally sponsored security infrastructure. Moreover, it has become clear that no one may assume leadership of Palestinian structures of power without gaining the approval of the leaders of the security sector and its interlocutors.
A comparison between the two major popular confrontations between Palestinians and Israeli military forces over the last two decades indicates that the Palestinian Authority’s security forces will likely continue to suppress Palestinian resistance to Israeli hegemony in the event of a new uprising.
If the PLO were revived, a change of leadership would remain unlikely. Consequently, the PA security forces would remain partisan, as the present leadership has been built on an intricate network buttressed by the security sector.
If the PA were to collapse, the international community would likely see to it that the PA security forces are remodeled as some form of internal policing unit, as stipulated in previous negotiations. The Israeli regime may reinstate control altogether, though this seems unlikely.
Stability for the international community is equated with Israel’s stability, and it will invariably prioritize Israel’s security and stability over more effective and democratic forms of governance in the West Bank and Gaza.
What does Palestine’s future look like, and how would different political scenarios affect various sectors of Palestinian society? From the continuation of the status quo, to the dismantling of the Palestinian Authority, and to the revival of the Palestine Liberation Organization, there are a myriad of possible implications and consequences for the Palestinian economy, for security, governance, rule of law, and beyond.
The Palestinian Authority (PA) won praise for its handling of the first wave of COVID-19 that swept over the occupied Palestinian territory (OPT) in the spring of 2020. However, while many of the challenges the PA faced were due to ongoing Israeli assaults on Palestinian lives, lands and rights, others can be traced to decades of domestic mismanagement and misuse of resources together with growing authoritarianism.
