Al-Shabaka: The Palestinian Policy Network is proud to release a groundbreaking analytical project, The Al-Shabaka Scenario Matrix. The matrix is an interactive tool that invites readers to engage with five future political scenarios for the West Bank and Gaza, detailing each scenario’s impact on four distinct sectors of society.
Authored by five Palestinian experts - Mohammed Al-Rozzi, Jamil Hilal, Tahani Mustafa, Tareq Sadeq, and Belal Shobaki - the matrix posits how changes to Palestinian leadership and its legitimacy may impact governance and security, the economy, education, and society across the West Bank and Gaza.
Remarking on the significance of the matrix, Al-Shabaka program advisor and project convener, Alaa Tartir, stated: “The Al-Shabaka Scenario Matrix is part of a vital future-visioning methodology that equips Palestinians with the tools necessary to proactively design forward-looking strategies to realize our unalienable rights.”
The matrix delves specifically into five potential scenarios that Palestinians in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza may encounter in the near future, namely: The continuation of the status quo; the dismantlement, collapse, or reconfiguration of the Palestinian Authority (PA); the revival of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO); the escalation of popular confrontation with the Israeli occupation/outbreak of a new Palestinian intifada; and an abrupt shift in leadership and governance, such as the vacancy of the presidential office or the formation of a new legislative council.
Al-Shabaka policy analyst and head of the Department of Political Science at Hebron University, Belal Shobaki, provided political grounding and analysis for the matrix. Shobaki notes that such a project “comes at a critical moment for Palestinians. With the two-state solution obsolete, the PLO marginalized, and Arab-Israeli normalization accelerating, the Al-Shabaka Scenario Matrix offers possible future paths for Palestinians in their struggle for liberation.”
For interviews with the authors of the Al-Shabaka Matrix, please contact [email protected].
Al-Shabaka: The Palestinian Policy Network was launched in 2010. The only independent, transnational Palestinian think tank, it is a registered 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization.