Scenario Matrix
Possibilities for the West Bank and Gaza
Scope
The Al-Shabaka Scenario Matrix is a policy-driven research initiative by Al-Shabaka: The Palestinian Policy Network. It engages with and leads a Palestinian-led scenarios assessment exercise, and explains the implications and consequences of future political scenarios for Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and Gaza from policy and sectoral perspectives. Importantly, while the scope of analysis for this project is primarily limited to the West Bank and Gaza, these geographical parameters should in no way be construed as a reduction of Palestine and its people to these areas.
The matrix presents and analyzes various scenarios that Palestinians are likely to encounter in the near future, namely: the continuation of the status quo; the dismantlement, collapse, or reconfiguration of the Palestinian Authority (PA); the revival of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO); the escalation of popular confrontation with the Israeli occupation/outbreak of a new Palestinian intifada; and an abrupt development, such as the vacancy of the presidential office or the formation of a new legislative council.
The matrix utilizes a sectoral approach, analyzing implications and consequences of these scenarios across specific sectors. In other words, it examines the interaction between the sectors themselves and the different future scenarios. To date, the following five sectors are examined: health; governance, security, and the rule of law; the economy; education; and the social sector. Political analysis is likewise provided for each scenario. Further sectors are anticipated to be included in the matrix in subsequent phases.
How to Use
Users are invited to engage with the matrix in several ways: One may explore the implications of a particular scenario across each sector (working vertically down the matrix), or delve into possibilities of a specific sector according to the five outlined scenarios (working horizontally across the matrix). Users may also engage with individual cross-sections at their discretion. In all instances, simply click on the selected image and a summary pop-up will appear, as well as a link to further in-depth analysis.
Acknowledgments
The Al-Shabaka Scenario Matrix is a collective effort by Al-Shabaka staff and policy analysts. The background research papers were curated by Alaa Tartir and written by Mohammed Al-Rozzi, Yara Asi, Jamil Hilal, Tahani Mustafa, Tareq Sadeq, and Belal Shobaki. Mimi Kirk provided invaluable support to the editorial process.
Status Quo
Collapse of the PA
Revival of the PLO
New Intifada
Abrupt Leadership Change
Political Overview
x
Status Quo
x
Collapse of the PA
x
Revival of the PLO
x
New Intifada
x
Abrupt Leadership Change
Health
x
Status Quo
x
Collapse of the PA
x
Revival of the PLO
x
New Intifada
x
Abrupt Leadership Change
Governance & Security
x
Status Quo
x
Collapse of the PA
x
Revival of the PLO
x
New Intifada
x
Abrupt Leadership Change
Economy
x
Status Quo
x
Collapse of the PA
x
Revival of the PLO
x
New Intifada
x
Abrupt Leadership Change
Education
x
Status Quo
x
Collapse of the PA
x
Revival of the PLO
x
New Intifada
x
Abrupt Leadership Change
Society
x
Status Quo
x
Collapse of the PA
x
Revival of the PLO
x
New Intifada
x
Abrupt Leadership Change
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